A stochastic model to study rift valley fever persistence with different seasonal patterns of vector abundance: New insights on the endemicity in the tropical island of Mayotte

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease causing abortion storms in cattle and human epidemics in Africa. Our aim was to evaluate RVF persistence in a seasonal and isolated population and to apply it to Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean), where the virus was still silently circulating four years after its last known introduction in 2007. We proposed a stochastic model to estimate RVF persistence over several years and under four seasonal patterns of vector abundance. Firstly, the model predicted a wide range of virus spread pat- terns, from obligate persistence in a constant or tropical environment (without needing verti- cal transmission or reintroduction) to frequent extinctions in a drier climate. We then identified for each scenario of seasonality the parameters that most influenced prediction variations. Persistence was sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host viraemia duration and vector lifespan in a drier climate. The first epizootic peak was primarily sensitive to viraemia duration and thus likely to be controlled by vaccination, whereas subsequent peaks were sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical cli- mate, and to host birth rate and viraemia duration in arid climates. Finally, we parameterized the model according to Mayotte known environment. Mosquito captures estimated the abundance of eight potential RVF vectors. Review of RVF competence studies on these species allowed adjusting transmission probabilities per bite. Ruminant serological data since 2004 and three new cross-sectional seroprevalence studies are presented. Transmis- sion rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data. Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission. Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions. (Résumé d'auteur

Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006–2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data

Multi-host disease management: the why and the how to include wildlife

<p>In recent years, outbreaks caused by multi-host pathogens (MHP) have posed a serious challenge to public and animal health authorities. The frequent implication of wildlife in such disease systems and a lack of guidelines for mitigating these diseases within wild animal populations partially explain why the outbreaks are particularly challenging. To face these challenges, the French Ministry of Agriculture launched a multi-disciplinary group of experts that set out to discuss the main wildlife specific concepts in the management of MHP disease outbreaks and how to integrate wildlife in the disease management process. This position paper structures the primary specific concepts of wildlife disease management, as identified by the working group. It is designed to lay out these concepts for a wide audience of public and/or animal health officers who are not necessarily familiar with wildlife diseases. The group's discussions generated a possible roadmap for the management of MHP diseases. This roadmap is presented as a cycle for which the main successive step are: step 1-descriptive studies and monitoring; step 2-risk assessment; step 3-management goals; step 4-management actions and step 5-assessment of the management plan. In order to help choose the most adapted management actions for all involved epidemiological units, we integrated a decision-making framework (presented as a spreadsheet). This tool and the corresponding guidelines for disease management are designed to be used by public and health authorities when facing MHP disease outbreaks. These proposals are meant as an initial step towards a harmonized transboundary outbreak response framework that integrates current scientific understanding adapted to practical intervention.</p

Persistence of Rift Valley fever in Mayotte : surveillance, modelling and perceptions

La fièvre de la Vallée du Rift (FVR) est une zoonose due à un virus transmissible par une large variété de vecteurs. Au cours des quinze dernières années, elle a rendu malades des dizaines de milliers de personnes, entrainé des centaines de décès humains et provoqué la mort de plus de 100 000 ruminants domestiques en Afrique et dans la péninsule arabique. Suite à la découverte de la présence du virus à Mayotte, les autorités sanitaires, le Cirad (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement) et les éleveurs ont créé en 2009 un système de surveillance en santé animale, le SESAM. L‘objectif de cette thèse était de faire un état des lieux de la situation épidémiologique de la FVR chez les ruminants à Mayotte en 2012-2013, d’évaluer les perspectives de persistance de la maladie et d’étudier les perceptions et les priorités des éleveurs vis-à-vis de cette maladie. En 2012, le fonctionnement du dispositif de surveillance de la FVR a été révisé avec un renouvellement partiel du groupe d’éleveurs sentinelles et un renforcement de la surveillance événementielle basée sur la recherche systématique de la FVR en cas d’avortement ou de mortalité anormale. Une baisse continue de la séroprévalence de 2010 à 2013 a été observée. En 2012-2013, le taux d’incidence est resté stable avec environ deux séroconversions pour 100 animaux-ans. Ce taux est très inférieur au taux d’incidence de 18% observé en 2011. Le virus de la FVR n’a été détecté dans aucun des prélèvements réalisés dans le cadre de la déclaration officielle des avortements chez les ruminants (n=41). Des critères d’évaluation de la performance du dispositif de surveillance ont été proposés et ont mis en évidence une amélioration de la qualité des données entre 2010 et 2013. Un modèle dynamique de type SIR a permis d’estimer le niveau de transmission hôte-vecteur attendu qui expliquerait au mieux la séroprévalence observée de 2008 à 2013 à Mayotte. La probabilité de transmission hôte-vecteur estimée par ce modèle est cinq fois plus faible qu’attendue. Dans ces conditions, la probabilité de persistance de la FVR, en l’absence de nouvelle introduction d’animaux virémiques reste inférieure à 10%, cinq ans après l’arrivée du virus. Enfin, la priorisation des problèmes sanitaires à Mayotte par une démarche d’épidémiologie participative et des réunions d’éleveurs a mis en évidence que les cinq problèmes spontanément rapportés comme les plus importants chez les bovins sont dans l’ordre le charbon symptomatique, les tiques, le syndrome « bavite-fièvre-grippe», le syndrome « dermatophilose-boutons » et la diarrhée. La FVR est absente de ce classement mais les avortements arrivent en 9ème position et à la première selon le critère de « risque ». La surveillance, et les approches interdisciplinaires de modélisation et de sciences humaines doivent être poursuivies pour évaluer plus précisément le risque de réémergence de la FVR à Mayotte et anticiper les réponses à y apporter. La surveillance doit aussi s’adapter aux attentes des éleveurs et développer l’approche syndromique ainsi que s’intégrer pleinement aux dispositifs régionaux et nationaux.Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonosis, with a wide variety of potential competent vectors. During the last fifteen years, RVF caused tens of thousands of human cases, hundreds of human deaths and more than 100,000 domestic ruminant deaths in Africa and in the Arabic peninsula. After the first detection of RVF in Mayotte, an animal health surveillance network has been created in 2009, namely the SESAM. The aim of this PhD was to assess the epidemiological situation of Mayotte toward RVF in 2012-2013, to assess the persistence probability of RVF in the territory and to document farmers’ perceptions and health priorities. In 2012, RVF surveillance has been revised in order to partially renew the pool of the sentinel herds. The passive surveillance with systematic RVF detection assay on abortion and abnormal mortality was enforced. A continuous decrease in the seroprevalence was observed based on 2010-2013 data. During 2012-2013, a steady incidence rate of about 2 seroconversions per 100 animal-year was observed. This rate is much lower than the previous assessment of 18% during 2011. RVF virus was not detected in any of the 41 declared abortion cases. Surveillance performance criteria were discussed and assessed showing mainly an increase in data quality between 2010 and 2013. A SIR dynamic model was built based on vector knowledge and observed seroprevalence in Mayotte from 2008 to 2013. Estimated host-vector transmission rate was fivefold lower than expected according to current literature. Persistence probability, without reintroduction of viremic animals, was predicted to be 10% five years after virus introduction. Finally, health problem prioritization in Mayotte was studied through focus groups, gathering 164 farmers. The five main issues stated were: blackleg, ticks, a respiratory « fever/flu-like» syndrome, a dermatologic syndrome and diarrhoea. RVF was absent from the priority problems list in which abortions were ranked 9th. However abortions came first when « risk » criteria was taken into account, raising issues of cultural risk perceptions. Further surveillance and research using transdisciplinary approaches that mix mathematical modelling and the humanities should be continued with the view to assess more precisely reemergence probability in Mayotte and anticipate mitigating measures. Surveillance and research should also align with farmers’ expectations. The development of syndromic surveillance (abortion, death, etc.) requires strengthening surveillance network and identification data quality. Mayotte surveillance components should also be fully integrated within the regional and national schemes